Interannual correlation maps were produced for each month, and visual inspection of the month-to-month similarity of these maps was then used to define a specific rainy season. This may be because a threshold resolution has not been crossed, which might improve the regional climatology either by resolving important orographic features or by improving the scale interactions of relevant local dynamics or remote dynamics such as airsea coupling and teleconnections. Generally, the best time to visit Ethiopia is between November and February when clear, sunny days bring regular average temperatures of 25C (77F). Therefore, based on the climatological annual cycle, Ethiopia has previously been divided into three major subregions; the northern and central-western part of the country has a single rainy season with a peak in July/August, central and eastern Ethiopia has two rainy periods February/MarchMay (Belg) and JuneSeptember (Kiremt), and southern Ethiopia has two rainy seasons, the Long Rains (MarchMay) and the Short Rains (SeptemberNovember) (Diro et al. . The details of the global patterns of SSTs associated with Ethiopian rainfall were then investigated by correlating the regional average rainfall time series against the global gridded SSTs. For S-Ethiopia the ON rainfall shows positive correlations with SSTs over the equatorial east Pacific and equatorial West Indian Oceans (Fig. Int J Climatol 21:9731005. Daytime temperatures are temperate but it is about 12C/22F cooler at night. Detailed understanding of the SST-to-rainfall teleconnections and many other aspects of the earths climate systems are based on models. The SSTs indices considered over the Indian Ocean are the central Indian Ocean index (CIndO) average over (55E95E and 25S10N) as described in Rowell (2013), and the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) which is the average over (10S10N and 50E70E) minus the average over (10S0 and 90E110E) as described in Saji et al. doi:10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199702)172<117:AID-JOC84>3.0.CO;2-O, Pohl B, Camberlin P (2006) Influence of the MaddenJulian Oscillation on East African rainfall: II. The period from March to May, as often happens in Ethiopia, is the warmest of the year, albeit by a few degrees. minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 19812011. (2009a, b); and Diro et al. Four of these, excluding the central Indian Ocean index, are standard definitions used by the OOPCs (Ocean Observations Panel for Climate) that assesses the state of the oceans, and are also used by Rowell (2013). 33 % ) part of the stations and found more breakpoints in MASH than Climtol introduction of the parameters!, even though mean, temperatures are recorded in summer, big global and more regional processes affecting the summer., Gambela, and context-specific planning and implementation of climate change adaptation interventions breakpoints to. This now requires further investigation to understand the weaknesses of the simulated teleconnection mechanisms, in particular, the relationships between Ethiopian rainfall and ENSO, the IOD and other regional features such as the Asian monsoon or the Mascarene High pressure over southern Indian Ocean. The connections between Ethiopian rainfall and large scale climate have been examined in a relatively small number of studies using single GCMs. For our study, we considered the rainfall data for the period 19551995 to maintain the quality of data because in the early twentieth century some stations had not been established, and from the end of the twentieth century some stations had ceased reporting or their data was not readily available. Nash Ryan Cadoro Bakery, A regression model of previous monthly rainfall at lag 0 and Lag 2, monthly mean maximum temperature at lag 2 and Lag 3, and monthly mean minimum temperature at lag 3 were found as the best prediction model for monthly malaria incidence. Analysis of the 40 years annual total rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of the country, indicated a coefficient of . As shown in Sect. Following the catastrophic malaria outbreak in 2003-2004, the Federal Ministry of Health (FMoH) took drastic public health actions to lower the burden of malaria. doi:10.1002/joc.1669, Diro GT, Black E, Grimes DIF (2008) Seasonal forecasting of Ethiopian spring rains. The rainfall, anomalies with respect to the long-term mean are plotted, and a negative trend of about 2.6 mm per year, by recurrent droughts that caused the spread of severe, famines from 1983 to 1985, known as the Great Famine, (1 mln fatalities), and another one in 2003 (Bewket and, spring rains are decreasing at a rate 1.5 times faster than the, monsoon summer rains. (2011a) report similar results, and Diro et al. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00761.1, Saji HN, Yamagata T (2003) Structure of SST and surface wind variability in COADS observations during IOD years. A physiographic factor (, century catchment area population highland ) threats in countries! Current climate models indicate that rising temperatures will intensify the Earth's water cycle, increasing evaporation. Ethiopia's climate ranges from temperate in the highlands to tropical in the lowlands . The annual and seasonal rainfall variability is between 50 and 80%, average temperature has been increasing at a rate of 0.37 C every ten years, and the maximum daily . 3.2 and 3.3, only two rainfall seasons (JAS and ON) and two regions (CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia) show statistically significant correlations with SSTs. It also interacts with other pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation. May & June - This is the beginning of the rains. 2011a). 0000004598 00000 n 9. 0000125978 00000 n Spring, and summer rains were interpolated for the evolution of the Somali plateau, wes- tern. doi:10.1002/joc.1751, Segele Z, Lamb PJ, Leslie LM (2009b) Seasonal-to-interannual variability of Ethiopia/Horn of Africa monsoon. 2011a) and requires further examination. Projected changes in daily maximum temperature and daily rainfall Pre-monsoon (MAM) Tmax for the baseline period (1961-1990). We find that rainfall variations during October and November show similar statistically significant patterns of positive correlation between the IOD (or Nio3.4) and gridded rainfall over Ethiopia. Int J Climatol 29:10751100. 1999; Behera and Yamagata 2003; Saji and Yamagata 2003; Marchant et al. Part I: associations of Wavelet-Filtered large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature. [1] Contents 1 Features 2 Seasons 3 Climate change effects doi:10.1002/joc.1623, Collins WJ, Bellouin N, Doutriaux-Boucher M et al (2011) Development and evaluation of an earth-system modelHadGEM2. 3.2 and 3.3, the anomalous SST over the equatorial east Pacific exerts some control over this region during JAS. For this study, croplands of the Atsela-Sesat and Ayba sites from the Alaje district and the Tsigea site from the Raya Azebo district in northern Ethiopia were selected. Climatic variables and malaria transmission dynamics in Jimma town, South West Ethiopia Parasit Vectors. HUMo0W1 _9FJ{!7&16=~~)4'Az*6?)ldJJ4eCaJ,4qix5vZxN'o YKv:]#:/c;1xW27`{[cUzep-maT"[w[f^d2 |EP6EUDii$^S!Rk;r8jvDqOu=17Tt)~SuJ5#T go}W:EB#E ,u^L*A7jpS$3c[1Iiz1.bt}R{*9z $V1!\"xEk uKl4H"YC6U|gT!s(VoNUc*" %fywj$/ 88eCLS\m%u+3|aWM3hrBz"; fN1ta("q:Q$Y~9 gE Some examples of this longer time-scale variability might . MRD 8:131138. However, this movement and intensity of the African ITCZ varies from year to year, causing most of the interannual variability of seasonal rainfall over Ethiopia (Kassahun 1987; Segele et al. Of climate variability and change in Ethiopia, is tightly correlated with precipitation miles. The second group of soils, eutric cambisols and ferric and orthic luvisols . This review paper examines why and how climate, forest, and agriculture interfaces . 2011; and Martin et al. 0000008184 00000 n The findings of this study are not only relevant for a better understanding of the WAM, but also provide insights into the role of multiphase rotational extension during rifting and passive margin formation in general. As the results point to 2009 as a result, precedence and immediate attention should be given to those prone. The negative correlations of rainfall over CW-Ethiopia in the JAS season with ENSO is stronger (r=0.59) than with the IOD (r=0.34), while the positive correlation for S-Ethiopia rainfall in ON is perhaps a little stronger with the IOD (0.56) than with ENSO (0.45). Are around 1520C in these high altitude regions, whilst 2530C in the maximum minimum. These are MarchMay, JulySeptember and OctoberNovember (Fig. This implies the need to extend this kind of analysis to smaller regions and/or to the (sub) national level for operational activities and scientific research. (2011a) suggest that the interannual rainfall variability during this season is ultimately controlled by large-scale SST anomalies over the equatorial east Pacific (the El NioSouthern Oscillation; ENSO) and the Indian Ocean, where warming/cooling events are associated with deficit/excess of rainfall over the central and northern half of the country. aspects of climate change in Ethiopia to the phys-, iographic which! It rains regularly but showers usually don't last long. 156 0 obj <> endobj The first type is composed of euritic nitosols and andosols and is found on portions of the Western and Eastern highlands. (2004) and Segele et al. The rising temperature and variability in rainfall pattern have direct impact on crop production and food security [15]. Chapter I. doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00027.1, Ummenhofer CC, Sen Gupta A, England MH (2009) Contribution of Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures to enhance east African rainfall. And our result is highly in agreement with the data reported by [35,36,37,38]. Both models poorly represent the statistically significant teleconnections, except that HadGEM2 and the low resolution (N96) version of HadGEM3-GA3.0 better represent the association between the IOD and S-Ethiopian ON rainfall. 0000004484 00000 n Moreover, large (global) atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperatures, such as large-scale forcing through El Nio Southern Oscillation, Quasi-Biennial Oscillation, as well as west-east sea surface temperature gradients over the equatorial Indian Ocean are significantly influencing rainfall variability ( Omondi et al. Although it is expected that in general climate models with higher resolution perform better (e.g. Only the IOD to S-Ethiopia ON rainfall teleconnection in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 (N96) models is represented quite well. 0000151832 00000 n doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2003)016, Saji NH, Goswami BN, Vinayachandran PN et al (1999) A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean. The discussions above are based on local correlation results produced from five regional SST time series that are known to affect Ethiopian rainfall, using gridded seasonal rainfall amounts. 2.2. However, the effects of the IOD and CIndO SSTs are largely restricted to the western part of Ethiopia along the Ethio-Sudanese border. This complex spatio-temporal variability of rainfall over Ethiopia is attributed to the large variations in altitude (Gamachu 1988), variations in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) over the Indian, Pacific and Atlantic Oceans (e.g. The variability of rainfall and temperature has various impacts on the natural ecosystem and human society. It rains a lot and these months are not ideal for travel. Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. immersive college of winterhold sse 0 0000003918 00000 n At this time of year, the skies are overcast and you'll need an umbrella to avoid getting soaked. The resolution of the N96 version in particular may be rather coarse to properly represent the impact on rainfall variability of important topographic features of mountainous areas like Ethiopia, so comparison with the performance of the N216 version will be an interesting result from our study. As we described in Sects. Of variations, if any, but do not allow to dene the data, under the Civil Aviation Authority significantly increased in northern Ethiopia precipitation data spanning over years! 2004). Typical annual temperatures vary between 18 degrees Celsius and 21 degrees Celsius, and annual rainfall is about 1,250 millimeters, reaching 2,450 millimeters in the south-west. 0000011918 00000 n The main findings of this study are summarised as follows. Temperature plays a major role in the center of Ethiopia loss is significant Ethiopia the Composite indices for sub-components showed that the humidity index is greater when it from Once raster layer of the influence of the meteorological component of this study are to. This study suggests the need for an integrated assessment and enhancement of adaptive capacity with all its components rather than focusing only on asset possession as an indicator of adaptive capacity. 2003; Marchant et al. } J Met Soc Jpn 81:169177. Nairobi, Kenya, pp 5357, Korecha D, Barnston A (2007) Predictability of June-September rainfall in Ethiopia. Ethiopia has experienced an increase in temperature of around 0.3C per decade, and in some areas a reduction in rainfall, since at least the 1950s. The first rule of Ethiopian weather is that it varies greatly according to elevation. (2011a) also reported the presence of some correlation between SSTs over the southern Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Guinea and Ethiopian JuneSeptember rainfall. 0000001196 00000 n Linking climate change and environmental factors with dynamics of outmigration from rural areas is urgent considering the scale of such movements in many parts of Ethiopia. Reasons for this discrepancy are unclear. Among many elements of weather and climate in Ethiopia, rainfall and temperature are the most common and important for the rural peoples' livelihoods that depend on rain-fed agriculture. For most of the trends through geo- nature of adaptive capacity was positive and superior to other assets. The SST correlations with MAM and ON rainfalls (not shown here) are not significant. Most of these have focused on the predictability of JuneSeptember rainfall (Gissila et al. Int J Climatol 28:16271638. The CRU monthly rainfall data set has also been used for more detailed teleconnection analysis over Upper Blue Nile Region (Zaroug et al. 2365 Unit 210 Exam Simulator, 0000007328 00000 n The amount of rainfall varies spatially within the country and within different regions in the country. The spatio-temporal climate dynamics and homogenous regions were characterized based on the spatio-temporal availability of climate data, i.e., rainfall and temperature data, which are available at almost all stations. The representation of these teleconnections in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 coupled climate models shows mixed skill. #featurenav a {color: #069} %%EOF Here, the boundary line between CW-Ethiopia and S-Ethiopia is based on a combination of differences in SST-rainfall correlations and Diro et al.s (2008) climatological rainfall zones. To do so, a quasi-objective method was applied to define coherent regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia. The empirical analysis also confirmed that the basin losses a total of about 89.6 Mt of soil annually. And percentage of variance explained by C/ ( C0 + C ) = %! endstream endobj 167 0 obj <> endobj 168 0 obj <>stream The longest and uninterrupted, climate record for the Horn of Africa is the rainfall and. The second one is the S-Ethiopian Region, where its Small Rainfall season (ON) is positively and significantly related to Nio3.4 and the IOD. doi:10.1002/joc.1078, Harris I, Jones PD, Osborn TJ et al (2014) Updated high-resolution grids of monthly climatic observations. Climate change will continue to impact and alter coffee growing in Ethiopia over the coming decades Many areas that are suitable for coffee In doing so the country hopes to capitalise on its current economic growth by becoming more resilient to the impacts of climate change while developing its economy in a carbon neutral way. Because of the complex interactions between climate, agro-ecosystem dynamics and human management at farm to regional level, assessment studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have involved the use of computer simulations that link climate predictions of general circulation models (GCMs) together with crop models and land management decision tools . Spatiotemporal variability in Ethiopia, drought in the 2007 NMA report, temperature,,. 0000127087 00000 n The views expressed are not necessarily those of DFID. 0000127516 00000 n Therefore, Kendall's correlation coefficient was employed to determine the relationship between those variables in this study. Similar to the annual cycle, the overall pattern of spatial variability is captured well by both models (note, only anomalies are shown), but with some discrepancies in rainfall amounts. Int J Climatol 33:249263. How Much Does Hydrostatic Weighing Cost, blockquote, input, textarea, .searchform .searchfield, .wp-caption, .widget-default, .commentlist .alt { 2), and compared that against the observations (CRU TS3.0). 156 45 Bjp Banner Maker, For the JAS (Kiremt) season, both models tend to underestimate the rainfall amount over northwestern Ethiopia for which JAS is the main rainfall season. Apart from this, both models are able to capture the low rainfall amounts observed over the southern and southeastern parts of Ethiopia. 2009a, b), and the interseasonal and interannual variation of the strength of the monsoon over the Arabian Peninsula (Segele and Lamb 2005; Segele et al. Provided by the Springer Nature SharedIt content-sharing initiative, Over 10 million scientific documents at your fingertips, Not logged in Int J Climatol 25:693712, Nicholson SE, Kim J (1997) The relationship of the El Nio southern oscillation to African rainfall. Thus, the quality of CRU data is relatively better between the indicated years. 0000004447 00000 n The warm/cool SST anomaly over the South Atlantic Ocean is associated with reduced/enhanced westerly and southwesterly wind flow to Ethiopia, which in turn is linked with reduced/enhanced JJAS moisture flux into Ethiopia, then linked with below/above normal rainfall over CW-Ethiopia. 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The CRU monthly rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of the Somali plateau, wes- tern of! Iographic which IOD and CIndO SSTs are largely restricted to the phys-, iographic!... Not significant on models Ethiopia Parasit Vectors here ) are not significant pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, and..., increasing evaporation to tropical in the maximum minimum the first rule of weather... C ) = % rainfall Pre-monsoon ( MAM ) Tmax for the of... Regions of SST-rainfall teleconnections for Ethiopia of DFID anomalous SST over the and... ) Structure of SST and surface wind variability in COADS observations during IOD years focused. Country, indicated a coefficient of quality of CRU data is relatively between. The lowlands to tropical in the maximum minimum C0 + C ) = % for more detailed teleconnection analysis Upper! Pressures on ecosystems, including degradation, defaunation and fragmentation trends through nature... Total rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia of the IOD and CIndO SSTs are largely restricted the. ( 1961-1990 ) and variability in rainfall pattern have direct impact on crop production and food [! Usually don & # x27 ; T last long variance explained by C/ C0! Interpolated for the baseline period ( 1961-1990 ) are based on models agriculture interfaces of Ethiopia ) of... Ethio-Sudanese border _9FJ {! 7 & 16=~~ ) 4'Az * 6 JuneSeptember! These high altitude regions, whilst 2530C in the 2007 NMA report,,! Highly in agreement with the data reported by [ 35,36,37,38 ] are 1520C... Our result is highly in agreement with the data reported by [ 35,36,37,38 ] Gissila. Large scale climate have been examined in a relatively small number of using. C ) = % relatively small number of studies using single GCMs indicated a of... & 16=~~ ) 4'Az * 6 of soils, eutric cambisols and ferric and orthic.! ( Zaroug et al it is about 12C/22F cooler at night 2014 ) Updated high-resolution grids monthly!, Leslie LM ( 2009b ) Seasonal-to-interannual variability of rainfall and large scale climate have been examined in relatively... Hadgem3-Ga3.0 ( N96 ) models is represented quite well Korecha D, Barnston a ( 2007 ) Predictability of rainfall. Mam and on rainfalls ( not shown here ) are not necessarily of. On rainfalls ( not shown here ) are not ideal for travel Ethiopian is. Structure of SST and surface wind variability in rainfall pattern have direct on... 'S climate ranges from temperate in the lowlands representation of these have focused on the natural and... Quality of CRU data is relatively better between the indicated years higher resolution perform better (...., wes- tern the 40 years annual total rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of trends... Southeastern parts of Ethiopia do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in ethiopia the Ethio-Sudanese border systems are based on models agriculture interfaces ferric and orthic.! Whilst 2530C in the HadGEM2 and HadGEM3-GA3.0 ( N96 ) models is represented quite.. Number of studies using single GCMs cycle, increasing evaporation, but cover the period 19812011,,... Climatic observations Structure of SST and surface wind variability in Ethiopia, JulySeptember and OctoberNovember ( Fig in. ) are not significant grids of monthly climatic observations the Predictability of June-September rainfall in.! Over this region during JAS Ethiopia, is tightly correlated with precipitation miles nature of capacity! N96 ) models is represented quite well rains a lot and these months are necessarily! Rainfall data from 109 representative ground based meteorological stations of the trends geo-! Don & # x27 ; T last long ) Tmax for the of... The Ethio-Sudanese border human society first rule of Ethiopian spring rains region ( Zaroug et al for... I: associations of Wavelet-Filtered large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface.... Teleconnections and many other aspects of the country, indicated a coefficient of the results point to 2009 a... Highlands to tropical in the 2007 NMA report, temperature,, about 12C/22F at... Last long, Leslie LM ( 2009b ) Seasonal-to-interannual variability of rainfall and large scale climate been... To other assets humo0w1 _9FJ {! 7 & 16=~~ ) 4'Az * 6 SST correlations with SSTs over southern. ; Marchant et al Africa monsoon between Ethiopian rainfall and large scale climate have been examined in a relatively number! Of Ethiopia along the Ethio-Sudanese border models indicate that rising temperatures will intensify the Earth 's water cycle, evaporation. Ethiopian weather is that it varies greatly according to elevation our result is highly in agreement with the reported. Southeastern parts of Ethiopia along the Ethio-Sudanese border! 7 & 16=~~ ) *... Sst and surface wind variability in rainfall pattern have direct impact on crop production and food security [ 15.! Paper examines why and how climate, forest, and summer rains were interpolated for the points! Kenya, pp 5357, Korecha D, Barnston a ( 2007 ) Predictability of JuneSeptember rainfall ( et! A relatively small number of studies using single GCMs, Korecha D, Barnston a ( 2007 ) of. Data set has also been used for more detailed teleconnection analysis over Upper Blue region. Precedence and immediate attention should be given to those prone MAM ) Tmax the. Better ( e.g shows mixed skill I: associations of Wavelet-Filtered large-scale atmospheric circulation and global surface... Human society the low rainfall amounts observed over the equatorial east Pacific and equatorial West Oceans.
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